The optimism came after a stronger third quarter, where copper production rose 36% to 583,000 tonnes, supported by higher ore grades across African and Peruvian operations. Yet, total annual output is still tracking 17% lower year-on-year, dragged by ongoing issues at Chile’s Collahuasi mine, co-owned with Anglo American ($AAL.L).

Collahuasi has yielded 59,000 tonnes less copper this year, hindered by water restrictions and declining grades. Glencore now forecasts 185,000–190,000 tonnes from the site and plans to reduce reliance on low-grade stockpiles in 2026. The company trimmed the top end of its full-year copper forecast to 875,000 tonnes, down from 890,000.

“Half its copper growth hinges on Argentina, where Javier Milei’s win helps sentiment but doesn’t solve social, regulatory, and logistical hurdles,” noted Alon Olsha, Bloomberg Intelligence.

Cobalt Strategy Adjusts to DRC Quotas

Beyond copper, Glencore outlined a cautious approach to its cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the government recently lifted its export ban in favor of a quota system managed by ARECOMS.
For 2026–2027, quotas total 87,000 tonnes per year of contained cobalt, with 18,125 tonnes approved for late 2025, alongside a 9,600-tonne strategic reserve.

Glencore said it has sufficient stockpiles to meet quotas and will prioritize copper when market conditions justify it a clear reflection of the shifting economics between the two critical metals. Cobalt, once the battery darling, continues to face price pressure and export bottlenecks despite its role in EVs and high-performance alloys.

Renewables Deferred

The miner also withdrew from a A$35 million federal grant for a renewable energy hub at Murrin Murrin, its nickel-cobalt operation in Western Australia, citing macroeconomic and cost headwinds. The decision underscores the tension between decarbonization ambitions and capital discipline in the current rate environment.

Takeaway

Glencore’s copper volumes may be shrinking, but its price resilience and the market’s sharp reaction to steady guidance suggest that investors are again looking past short-term misses to focus on copper’s tightening global balance.
The metal remains structurally undersupplied, with new project pipelines thinning just as electrification and AI-driven energy infrastructure ramp up.
For traders, the message is simple: when a top-tier producer struggles to grow supply, the long-term copper story only gets stronger.

Copper is edging back toward record territory as hopes rise for a long-awaited trade breakthrough between the United States and China, easing one of the biggest drags on global growth.

On the London Metal Exchange, the benchmark three-month contract climbed 1.2% to $11,094 per ton, just $10.50 short of the all-time high set in early 2024. The move highlights how sensitive the market remains to geopolitics, with traders wagering that a thaw in trade tensions could unleash new demand across manufacturing, power infrastructure, and green-energy buildouts.

According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, negotiators from both sides wrapped up talks over the weekend that may allow Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a comprehensive deal later this week. Early reports suggest the agreement would suspend Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and prompt Beijing to pause any new rare-earth export restrictions for at least a year. Both measures are viewed as key to restoring supply-chain stability after years of disruption.

Copper’s 2025 run has been exceptional, now up roughly 25% year-to-date. Tight supply has magnified the rally. Freeport-McMoRan cut its sales forecast following a fatal incident at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, while Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to face logistical setbacks.

The metal has also benefited from a softer U.S. dollar, down nearly 8% since January, which makes commodities priced in greenbacks cheaper for foreign buyers.

Adding to the bullish backdrop, BHP Group has reiterated its projection that global copper demand could jump about 70% by 2050 as electrification, grid upgrades, and renewable energy projects accelerate worldwide.

Takeaway:
The alignment of trade détente, constrained mine supply, and booming electrification demand has once again put copper in the spotlight. If Washington and Beijing finalize their accord, the market could be entering the next phase of the copper supercycle – a period where the metal of electrification cements its role at the core of the global economy.