Copper is edging back toward record territory as hopes rise for a long-awaited trade breakthrough between the United States and China, easing one of the biggest drags on global growth.

On the London Metal Exchange, the benchmark three-month contract climbed 1.2% to $11,094 per ton, just $10.50 short of the all-time high set in early 2024. The move highlights how sensitive the market remains to geopolitics, with traders wagering that a thaw in trade tensions could unleash new demand across manufacturing, power infrastructure, and green-energy buildouts.

According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, negotiators from both sides wrapped up talks over the weekend that may allow Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a comprehensive deal later this week. Early reports suggest the agreement would suspend Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and prompt Beijing to pause any new rare-earth export restrictions for at least a year. Both measures are viewed as key to restoring supply-chain stability after years of disruption.

Copper’s 2025 run has been exceptional, now up roughly 25% year-to-date. Tight supply has magnified the rally. Freeport-McMoRan cut its sales forecast following a fatal incident at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, while Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to face logistical setbacks.

The metal has also benefited from a softer U.S. dollar, down nearly 8% since January, which makes commodities priced in greenbacks cheaper for foreign buyers.

Adding to the bullish backdrop, BHP Group has reiterated its projection that global copper demand could jump about 70% by 2050 as electrification, grid upgrades, and renewable energy projects accelerate worldwide.

Takeaway:
The alignment of trade détente, constrained mine supply, and booming electrification demand has once again put copper in the spotlight. If Washington and Beijing finalize their accord, the market could be entering the next phase of the copper supercycle – a period where the metal of electrification cements its role at the core of the global economy.