The optimism came after a stronger third quarter, where copper production rose 36% to 583,000 tonnes, supported by higher ore grades across African and Peruvian operations. Yet, total annual output is still tracking 17% lower year-on-year, dragged by ongoing issues at Chile’s Collahuasi mine, co-owned with Anglo American ($AAL.L).

Collahuasi has yielded 59,000 tonnes less copper this year, hindered by water restrictions and declining grades. Glencore now forecasts 185,000–190,000 tonnes from the site and plans to reduce reliance on low-grade stockpiles in 2026. The company trimmed the top end of its full-year copper forecast to 875,000 tonnes, down from 890,000.

“Half its copper growth hinges on Argentina, where Javier Milei’s win helps sentiment but doesn’t solve social, regulatory, and logistical hurdles,” noted Alon Olsha, Bloomberg Intelligence.

Cobalt Strategy Adjusts to DRC Quotas

Beyond copper, Glencore outlined a cautious approach to its cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the government recently lifted its export ban in favor of a quota system managed by ARECOMS.
For 2026–2027, quotas total 87,000 tonnes per year of contained cobalt, with 18,125 tonnes approved for late 2025, alongside a 9,600-tonne strategic reserve.

Glencore said it has sufficient stockpiles to meet quotas and will prioritize copper when market conditions justify it a clear reflection of the shifting economics between the two critical metals. Cobalt, once the battery darling, continues to face price pressure and export bottlenecks despite its role in EVs and high-performance alloys.

Renewables Deferred

The miner also withdrew from a A$35 million federal grant for a renewable energy hub at Murrin Murrin, its nickel-cobalt operation in Western Australia, citing macroeconomic and cost headwinds. The decision underscores the tension between decarbonization ambitions and capital discipline in the current rate environment.

Takeaway

Glencore’s copper volumes may be shrinking, but its price resilience and the market’s sharp reaction to steady guidance suggest that investors are again looking past short-term misses to focus on copper’s tightening global balance.
The metal remains structurally undersupplied, with new project pipelines thinning just as electrification and AI-driven energy infrastructure ramp up.
For traders, the message is simple: when a top-tier producer struggles to grow supply, the long-term copper story only gets stronger.

Copper is edging back toward record territory as hopes rise for a long-awaited trade breakthrough between the United States and China, easing one of the biggest drags on global growth.

On the London Metal Exchange, the benchmark three-month contract climbed 1.2% to $11,094 per ton, just $10.50 short of the all-time high set in early 2024. The move highlights how sensitive the market remains to geopolitics, with traders wagering that a thaw in trade tensions could unleash new demand across manufacturing, power infrastructure, and green-energy buildouts.

According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, negotiators from both sides wrapped up talks over the weekend that may allow Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a comprehensive deal later this week. Early reports suggest the agreement would suspend Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and prompt Beijing to pause any new rare-earth export restrictions for at least a year. Both measures are viewed as key to restoring supply-chain stability after years of disruption.

Copper’s 2025 run has been exceptional, now up roughly 25% year-to-date. Tight supply has magnified the rally. Freeport-McMoRan cut its sales forecast following a fatal incident at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, while Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to face logistical setbacks.

The metal has also benefited from a softer U.S. dollar, down nearly 8% since January, which makes commodities priced in greenbacks cheaper for foreign buyers.

Adding to the bullish backdrop, BHP Group has reiterated its projection that global copper demand could jump about 70% by 2050 as electrification, grid upgrades, and renewable energy projects accelerate worldwide.

Takeaway:
The alignment of trade détente, constrained mine supply, and booming electrification demand has once again put copper in the spotlight. If Washington and Beijing finalize their accord, the market could be entering the next phase of the copper supercycle – a period where the metal of electrification cements its role at the core of the global economy.

Platinum, long overshadowed by gold, is suddenly stealing the show. Up nearly 70% year-to-date, the metal has broken free from a 17-year technical consolidation, signaling what could be the start of a new multi-year bull cycle. Investors, traders, and even family offices that once leaned on the S&P 500 and gold for stability are now turning their attention to a different kind of shine — the kind that powers engines, fuel cells, and the clean-energy transition.

From Safe Havens to Industrial Powerhouses

For decades, platinum and palladium have formed the backbone of key global industries. Beyond their role in jewelry, these metals are critical to reducing vehicle emissions through catalytic converters and advancing hydrogen fuel technology.

-Platinum is prized for its stability and use in hydrogen fuel cells.
-Palladium, its chemical twin, remains essential for automakers who alternate between the two depending on price and availability.

With roughly 80% of global supply coming from South Africa and Russia, both metals are prone to volatility when geopolitical or mining disruptions arise — a reality that can amplify price surges when demand spikes.

2025’s Commodities Scorecard

If 2024 was gold’s comeback year, 2025 belongs to platinum. According to year-to-date data:

-Platinum: +69.55%
-Silver: +53.70%
-Palladium: +41.24%
-Gold: +38.73%

Silver continues to impress, gold
remains a safe play, but platinum has emerged as the year’s clear leader.

A 17-Year Bull Flag Breakout

Technically, platinum’s move is nothing short of historic. Analysts have been watching a multi-decade bull flag pattern dating back to 2008. This year, the breakout finally came – with momentum confirming the setup.

The next major target sits near $2,308 per ounce, platinum’s 2008 high, about 40% above current levels. Short-term pullbacks are expected, with key support zones at $1,605, $1,593, and $1,577–$1,579, offering potential accumulation areas for tactical traders.

Palladium: The Quiet Contender

While platinum dominates headlines, palladium could soon stage its own recovery. Historically, when one PGM (platinum-group metal) rallies too far, industries pivot – driving demand for the other. For investors looking beyond the obvious trade, palladium’s catch-up potential is worth watching.

Some analysts see $1,500 per ounce as a plausible 12-month target for palladium if substitution trends accelerate.

The Platinum Playbook

For investors entering the space, accessibility has improved dramatically. Exposure can come through:

-ETFs: PPLT, PLTM for platinum; PALL for palladium.

-Physical bullion: Coins and bars via dealers (though storage costs apply).

-Futures: CME contracts, suited for seasoned traders.

-Equities: Producers with PGM exposure.

-Clean-energy ETFs: Indirect plays via hydrogen and fuel-cell themes.

The Market Context – Why Now Matters

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global platinum demand for hydrogen technologies could triple by 2030, while palladium supply remains constrained. Meanwhile, major automakers continue to balance between the two metals to meet emissions standards amid the EV transition.

At the same time, the World Bank’s latest Commodity Outlook notes that structural deficits in PGM supply could persist through the decade as new mines face permitting and capital hurdles.

The Takeaway

Platinum’s breakout isn’t just a technical story – it’s a macro one. The shift toward hydrogen, the rebound in industrial production, and the scarcity of new supply are all converging at once.

Investors who have long focused solely on gold might be missing the next big opportunity hiding in plain sight. Platinum, the once-overlooked sibling, is now leading the precious-metals pack – and palladium may not be far behind

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

On the Comex, December gold contracts traded around $4,003 per troy ounce by late afternoon, up roughly 50% year to date from $2,670 at the start of 2025. The move follows Monday’s close of $3,960.60, a record at the time. Silver also rallied sharply, climbing nearly 60% this year to trade just under $48 per ounce.

Policy and Political Drivers

The rally has been fueled by a convergence of factors: persistent trade tensions under President Donald Trump, renewed Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening U.S. dollar. In September, the Fed reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points, with two additional cuts projected before year-end.

At the same time, the prolonged government shutdown has intensified concerns about fiscal management and potential damage to the job market. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees have been furloughed, while key economic data releases remain suspended.

“Gold’s rally began in 2022, but the current phase was triggered by geopolitical stress and the freezing of Russian foreign reserves,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Global Wealth Management, adding that gold remains “the default hedge in times of policy distrust.”

Broader Demand Surge

Beyond financial flows, central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical instability-including conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza-have further boosted institutional demand. Retail interest has also surged, with dealers reporting record volumes of customers selling heirlooms or buying small bars and coins to preserve wealth.

However, the rapid ascent has revived debate over gold’s reliability as an inflation hedge. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) warned that volatility in precious metals markets can reach 10–15%, making gold a high-risk holding despite its safe-haven appeal.

Environmental Cost

The global scramble for gold has also amplified environmental and public-health risks. Illegal small-scale mining operations-from Senegal to Peru-have increased mercury use, contaminating water systems and threatening nearby communities. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that artisanal mining now accounts for nearly 40% of global mercury emissions.

Takeaway

At $4,000 an ounce, gold has reasserted its dominance as the world’s crisis currency-one that reflects not only inflation fears but deep uncertainty about policy, governance, and the global economic order. Whether this becomes a new plateau or a speculative peak will depend on Washington’s ability to restore stability and on how quickly real yields adjust to renewed monetary easing.

The funding package, shared equally between the federal and Queensland state governments, will be disbursed over three years in three tranches of up to A$200 million each, contingent on Glencore completing a transformation study and meeting specified performance milestones.

The initiative aims to safeguard roughly 600 direct jobs while positioning Mount Isa as part of a longer-term strategy to strengthen Australia’s critical minerals and energy-transition supply chains.

“Copper is critical to building solar panels, wind turbines and energy storage systems. This investment strengthens our supply chains and supports Australia’s transition to net zero,” said Federal Industry Minister Tim Ayres in a statement.

A Strategic Lifeline

The Mount Isa complex, operating since the 1950s, had been under review amid rising energy costs, lower ore grades, and tightening emissions standards. Analysts viewed the plant as potentially uneconomic without direct government support. The new package effectively grants Glencore time to modernize its assets, develop cleaner smelting processes, and assess integration with new ore feed sources in North Queensland.

The transformation study, expected to begin immediately, will examine options for “sustainable and long-term industrial capability,” including potential downstream copper products or critical-mineral co-processing.

Securing Supply Amid Global Strains

The decision reflects a broader strategic pivot by Western governments to counterbalance China’s dominance in metal refining. Recent supply shocks — from the Grasberg mine disaster in Indonesia to power rationing in southern China — have underscored the fragility of global copper supply chains.

Australia’s move follows BHP’s $555 million expansion at Olympic Dam last week and signals renewed government willingness to use industrial policy to backstop key processing infrastructure.

According to the International Energy Agency, the world will need to double refined copper output by 2035 to meet electrification targets. With Glencore’s Australian smelter network still providing essential feed into regional manufacturing and defense sectors, the government’s intervention highlights a shift toward protecting strategic assets once considered commercially marginal.

Takeaway

Canberra’s $395 million rescue of Mount Isa marks a return of state-backed industrial policy in the metals sector — one aimed not at short-term price stabilization, but at long-term supply resilience. In an environment where global miners are consolidating and new smelter capacity is scarce outside China, Australia’s move positions it as one of the few Western jurisdictions actively defending domestic copper-processing capability.

On September 8, a massive 800,000-ton mud rush swept through the underground Block Cave section of the mine, blocking access tunnels and trapping several workers. Two fatalities have been confirmed, with five still missing. All mining operations have been suspended, and Freeport has warned that Grasberg may not return to full production until 2027.

Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine after Chile’s Escondida, produced 815,000 metric tons of copper last year, accounting for roughly 4% of global supply. The immediate loss of output has already driven the London Metal Exchange copper price to a 15-month high of $10,485 per ton.

Supply Stress Deepens

Analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) estimate that cumulative production losses from the incident could reach 600,000 tons by the end of 2026 — equivalent to a full year’s output from Collahuasi, the world’s third-largest mine. BMI now expects a 400,000-ton market deficit in 2026, widening from its previous projection of just 72,000 tons.

Citi projects a similar shortfall through 2027 unless higher prices incentivize new supply. The bank now sees copper trading toward the $12,000 range in the next 12 months under its base scenario.

Freeport expects some limited operations at unaffected parts of Grasberg to resume later this year, but described fourth-quarter copper output as “insignificant.” Next year’s sales guidance has already been cut by 35%.

Ripple Effects Across the Supply Chain

The timing of the disruption compounds challenges for Indonesia’s domestic refining capacity. Grasberg’s concentrate exports were already set to end in October to supply the new Manyar smelter, which was targeting full 480,000-ton annual refined capacity by year-end after a fire-related delay. That ramp-up schedule is now uncertain, depending on stockpiled feed availability.

The incident also follows two other serious mining disruptions this year: a flooding event at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kakula project in the DRC and a fatal tunnel collapse at Codelco’s El Teniente operation in Chile. Together, they highlight growing geological and operational risks as miners dig deeper to sustain output.

Concentrated Risk

According to BMI, the 20 largest copper mines now account for 36% of total global production, underscoring the concentration of supply in a handful of massive, complex assets. The deeper the operations go, the greater the exposure to seismic, hydrological, and infrastructure risks — and the greater the market shock when something fails.

Investor Takeaway

The Grasberg disaster reinforces what many in the market already know: the copper supply chain is fragile, and the margin for error is shrinking. With deficits widening and demand from electrification, data centers, and defense manufacturing accelerating, the next bull leg in copper may be driven as much by scarcity as by growth.

For developers in stable jurisdictions — such as Power Metallic Mines ($PNPN) in Quebec — the shift underscores the strategic premium now placed on reliability, ESG compliance, and long-term production stability in the copper and polymetallic space.

The bank now expects global copper mine output to grow by only 0.2% in 2025, down from its prior 0.8% estimate, after a mudflow incident on September 8 forced Freeport to declare force majeure and suspend production. Grasberg’s annual output is expected to fall by roughly 250,000–260,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026, resulting in a total supply loss of more than half a million tons across both years.

Freeport said operations could restart gradually in the first half of 2026, but the impact has already shifted Goldman’s 2025 global copper balance from a projected 105,000-ton surplus to a 55,000-ton deficit.

Market Implications

Goldman Sachs now sees upside risk to its December 2025 LME copper price forecast of $9,700 per ton, suggesting a potential trading range between $10,200 and $10,500 in the coming months. The bank reaffirmed its long-term bullish target of $10,750 by 2027, citing structural undersupply amid rising electrification demand.

Rival Citi also revised its short-term outlook, lifting its 0–3 month and Q4 forecasts to $10,500 per ton and projecting prices could reach $12,000 within 12 months under its base scenario—or $14,000 in a bull-case rally. Citi now expects a 400-kiloton market deficit in 2026.

Broader Context

The disruption underscores how fragile the copper supply chain has become as major producers face aging mines, higher costs, and weather-related risks. According to the International Energy Agency, demand from renewable power grids, EV infrastructure, and AI-driven data centers is set to double copper consumption by 2035, while new large-scale projects remain scarce.

For North American developers such as Power Metallic Mines ($PNPN), advancing high-grade discoveries in stable jurisdictions, the tightening supply environment continues to highlight the strategic value of domestic production pipelines.

Takeaway

With Grasberg offline and no immediate replacement capacity, the copper market is again facing a supply-driven squeeze that could accelerate the next leg of the commodities supercycle. For investors, the recalibration by major banks like Goldman and Citi reinforces the view that copper remains one of the few industrial metals with both short-term scarcity and long-term structural upside.

On the CME, three-month futures traded at $10,000 per ton ($4.61/lb), down 0.3% for the session, while on the London Metal Exchange, copper remained just below the same threshold, consolidating last week’s gains.

The stability in prices came despite confirmation that Freeport has suspended all operations at Grasberg following a mudflow incident earlier this month that trapped seven workers underground. Two of the bodies have since been recovered, with search and rescue operations ongoing. The company said production will remain halted until safety conditions allow a restart.

Supply Concerns Mount

Grasberg ranks as the world’s second-largest copper producer, and its closure has reignited concerns over global supply at a time when inventories remain tight and new capacity additions are lagging. Analysts warn that an extended suspension could quickly shift the market from balance into deficit.

The shutdown follows years of declining ore grades and rising operational risks across major copper-producing regions, from Chile to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Combined with strong demand from grid upgrades, EV production, and AI data centers, the supply gap has kept prices resilient even amid global economic uncertainty.

Market Outlook

Citigroup reiterated last week that while prices could finish 2025 in a consolidation range, a more sustained rally could emerge in 2026, potentially driving copper to $12,000 per ton in its base case. Goldman Sachs, in a separate note, warned that the Grasberg outage could erase more than 500,000 tons of mine supply across 2025–2026, shifting its 2025 global forecast from a surplus to a deficit.

Takeaway

With Grasberg’s output offline and no near-term substitute capacity, the copper market remains on alert for potential supply shocks. For institutional investors, the near-term pause in prices may reflect temporary positioning—but structurally, the risk bias continues to tilt upward as production disruptions compound long-term demand growth.

Market Balance

Forecasts suggest a modest copper surplus of just over 120,000 tonnes in 2026, reflecting short-term demand pressures in the United States. Average tariffs are at multi-decade highs, and household consumption is expected to ease slightly. Copper was trading at $4.62 per pound on Wednesday, with analysts expecting an average of $3.65 per pound in 2026.

While these headwinds may weigh temporarily, the scale of future demand tied to artificial intelligence and grid modernization is expected to overwhelm supply. From 2027 onward, deficits are projected to return and deepen through the end of the decade.

Structural Drivers

Research firms project copper to average $5.25 per pound in 2028 and reach $6 by 2030 as electrification accelerates. The expansion of power-hungry data centres, renewable energy systems, and energy storage technology all point to higher sustained demand. Deficits could reach more than 750,000 tonnes by 2030.

Copper’s unmatched conductivity ensures it remains critical for transmission lines, transformers, motors, and renewable installations. The push to build out digital and clean energy infrastructure globally reinforces copper’s central role.

Producers Positioned

Developers such as Hudbay Minerals ($HBM), Capstone Copper ($CS), and Lundin Mining ($LUN) are actively advancing projects to meet the demand curve. Hudbay is developing the Copper World project in Arizona while expanding its Peruvian operations. Capstone is increasing output at Pinto Valley and Cozamin with further growth in Chile. Lundin is pursuing integration and expansion across its assets in Chile, Michigan, and Argentina.

Large-cap producers including BHP ($BHP) and Freeport-McMoRan ($FCX) continue to commit significant capital to sustain long-term output. At the same time, supply risks tied to permitting and operational delays highlight the scarcity value of new production.

AI and Energy Storage

The scale of demand from artificial intelligence data centres is emerging as a powerful factor. Individual hyperscale facilities can require up to 50,000 tonnes of copper for wiring and cooling, with North American data centres expected to consume 10% of regional electricity within five years.

Global spending on server farms is already above $200 billion annually, with consulting groups projecting that figure could rise into the trillions in the 2030s. Battery energy storage systems, which now account for the majority of growth in lithium iron phosphate production in China, add another structural source of demand. By 2035, production of EV and storage batteries is expected to be on par.

Takeaway

Copper may experience a brief period of balance in 2026, but the weight of structural demand from electrification, storage, and AI suggests a sustained supply deficit as the decade progresses. For investors and producers alike, the opportunity lies in anticipating that turning point and positioning for a market that increasingly rewards those with scalable copper assets.

Building Scale Through Integration

At the heart of the deal is the planned integration of Teck’s Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in northern Chile with Anglo’s 44% interest in Collahuasi, one of the world’s largest copper operations. Analysts believe that linking Collahuasi’s high-grade ore to QB’s new processing facilities through a 15-kilometre conveyor could unlock output equivalent to a mid-sized standalone mine. The system is projected to add 175,000 tonnes per year between 2030 and 2049.

Together, the Collahuasi-QB complex could produce roughly one million tonnes annually, taking total Anglo-Teck output to around 1.35 million tonnes. For comparison, Escondida produced 1.28 million tonnes in 2024, cementing its position as the industry leader. A shift at the top would mark the first change in copper mining’s pecking order in a generation.

Financial Ambitions

Management is targeting $800 million in annual pretax synergies, with as much as $1.4 billion in incremental EBITDA from procurement and operating efficiencies. Portfolio managers, however, suggest those forecasts may understate the potential. “The optionality to expand and develop that complex over multiple decades is not in that number,” noted George Cheveley of Ninety One, underscoring the longevity of the asset base.

For Anglo American, which has been under pressure to simplify its portfolio and sharpen its focus, the merger offers an avenue to deepen copper exposure just as global demand accelerates. For Teck, the deal would crystallize value from QB, an asset seen as both a growth engine and an operational drag.

Execution Risks in Focus

The QB mine has been plagued by setbacks including cost overruns, pit-wall stability issues, plant outages, and waste-storage challenges. Analysts argue that resolving these operational hurdles is a prerequisite before any serious challenge to Escondida’s dominance can materialize.

Complicating matters further, Anglo does not control Collahuasi outright. Glencore (LON: GLEN) holds an equal 44% interest, while Japanese partners own the balance. That structure means expansion decisions will require alignment across multiple parties, potentially slowing development timelines.

Wood Mackenzie values Teck at $10.8 billion on a sum-of-the-parts basis, with copper contributing $13.8 billion, zinc $1.1 billion, offset by $4.1 billion in central costs through 2040. The firm’s valuation reflects QB’s execution risks but does not capture merger synergies or expansion options.

Why It Matters for Copper Markets

Copper has increasingly been labeled the “new oil” of electrification. From EV charging infrastructure to power grids and data centers, demand is expected to double over the next two decades, according to the International Energy Agency. Yet supply growth has lagged: ore grades are falling globally, permitting is slower, and few large-scale discoveries have been made in the last decade.

These dynamics explain why consolidation, not grassroots exploration, has become the preferred strategy for majors. The Anglo-Teck merger, if approved, would represent the largest mining-sector transaction of the decade and one of the few with the scale to alter supply fundamentals.

For host country Chile, the deal also carries significance. Santiago is seeking to balance private investment with tighter environmental and social standards while maintaining competitiveness against Peru and emerging jurisdictions. A Collahuasi-QB hub producing over one million tonnes annually would further entrench Chile’s dominance as the world’s top copper supplier.

Investor Takeaway

The Anglo-Teck transaction highlights the race among global miners to secure scale in critical minerals. If QB’s structural issues can be resolved, the combined entity could displace Escondida and reshape copper supply for decades. Execution risk remains the main caveat, but the direction of travel is clear: in a market where demand is tied to electrification and AI-driven energy use, consolidation is becoming the fastest route to copper leadership.

Key Points for Investors

• Anglo and Teck plan a $53B merger to integrate QB and Collahuasi in Chile
• Projected combined output of 1.35M tonnes could surpass Escondida by the 2030s
• $800M in synergies targeted, with upside of $1.4B EBITDA gains
• Operational challenges at QB remain the biggest risk factor
• Consolidation trend reflects industry shift as copper demand accelerates